While Monday will be mainly dry and hot, our eyes remain on the Tropics in the coming days as Tropical Storm Francine will move towards parts of the Gulf Coast later this week, heavily influencing our forecast by midweek. 

Scroll farther down the page to find the short-term forecast.

Tropical Storm Francine: Francine is officially the 6th named storm of the 2024 season, becoming a Tropical Storm Monday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The Storm is currently moving NNW at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Francine is expected to slowly move north across the gulf in the coming days, gaining strength as it moves over the warm Gulf waters. The latest forecast put out by the National Hurricane Center shows Francine becoming a Category 1 Hurricane with maximum winds up to 85 mph before making landfall over southern Louisiana late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. 

A ***HURRICANE WATCH*** is in effect through Thursday morning along the coast, but includes St. Mary, Assumption, and Iberville Parish. Prepare for sustained winds in the ballpark of 55-75 mph with gusts up to 90 mph for our covered Parishes in this region. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.

A ***TROPICAL STORM WATCH*** is in effect through Thursday morning for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Livingston, Ascension, St. James, and southern Tangipahoa Parishes. Prepare for tropical storm-force winds between 39 and 73 mph. Hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible at times, especially closer to Baton Rouge with the latest trajectory. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.

There are several factors determining the future track and especially the intensity of the storm. Understand that adjustments may be needed in the coming days as new data arrives. Keep up to date with the latest forecast. The Storm Station has you covered on-air, online, and on social media. Download the free, WBRZ weather app HERE to find out first when new tropical updates become available.

Impacts will begin across southern Louisiana as early as Wednesday, lasting through Wednesday night and into early Thursday. The primary impact to southeast Louisiana appears to be heavy rain and possible flooding.

Heavy Rain/Flooding: 4-8" of rain is possible in Metro Baton Rouge, with higher amounts closer to where the center of the system tracks. Typical trouble spots may hold water, and southeast-facing shores might face minor to moderate coastal flooding.

A ***FLOOD WATCH*** has been issued for the entirety of south Louisiana. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. A Flood Watch means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.

However, the Storm Station will monitor other possible impacts which will be closely tied to how the system tracks:

Tornadoes: The latest trajectory places the capital area on the right, forward side of the storm. It is this part where tornadoes are often found. Tropical tornadoes tend to develop quickly and be short-lived. Have a way to receive alerts and be alert to Tornado Warnings beginning Wednesday.

Wind: Guidance has trended toward a slightly stronger storm upon landfall, possibly doing so as a low-end hurricane. The wind forecast will ultimately hinge on one’s proximity to the system. Those who end up near the center of circulation could experience hurricane-force winds, especially for those closer to the coast. Farther inland and away from the center, tropical storm-force winds are possible. At the very least, it will get breezy. Winds will ramp up on Wednesday, peak Wednesday night, before subsiding on Thursday.

Storm Surge: Winds associated with Francine will push water toward the immediate coastline. Anywhere from 5 to 10 feet of storm surge is possible along the coast. 2 to 4 feet of surge is possible along the Northshore. This is primarily an issue for non-levee protected areas. Storm Surge Watches have been issued along the Northshore and the coast through Thursday. This may be upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning in the coming days.

This is a life-threatening situation for areas affected. Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. Be on the lookout for evacuation orders from officials and leave immediately if ordered.

There are still a few more days to monitor the progress of the system. While waiting, pay close attention to the forecast, review your hurricane preparedness plan, and refresh supplies if needed.

The following is the short-term forecast prior to any potential tropical impacts by midweek.

Today: Comfortable morning conditions Monday will give way to plenty of sunshine and a hot afternoon. High's around the southern Louisiana will warm near 90°. An uptick in humidity throughout the day will make things feel a bit stickier than on Sunday. Only a few stray showers will be able to squeeze out of afternoon clouds. 

Tonight: Temperatures will drop into the lower 70's overnight tonight with a few clouds hanging around from Monday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions with light winds can be expected. 

Tuesday: Clouds will increase on Tuesday. This is a sign of improving moisture content in the capital area. By Tuesday afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to arrive from the south. Highs will be slightly cooler as a result, likely sitting in the mid-80s. Rain coverage will increase late Tuesday and into Wednesday as Francine draws closer.

Other Tropical Waves In the Atlantic Basin:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of organization. Conditions appear favorable for additional development in the coming days. A tropical depression is likely to form into next week while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. At this time, this disturbance does not appear to pose any problems to Louisiana.

Another trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the system and a tropical depression could form by the middle to late parts of the week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward. At this time, the system does not appear to pose any issues to Louisiana.

The Storm Station is here for you, tracking the tropics on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App on your Apple or Android device. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go. You can also find tropical updates on our Hurricane Center HERE.