Quiet weather will continue through Thursday. Though rain can’t be ruled out on Friday, widespread action will hold off until Saturday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another day, another morning with clouds and another afternoon with sunshine and warmth. Look for high temperatures to reach 84 degrees with southwest winds of 5-10mph. As the local baseball teams showdown at sundown, Alex Box Stadium fans will find temperatures falling through the 70s beneath clear skies. Overnight will be clear early and some fog late with lows near 62 degrees.     

Up Next: Mostly sunny skies are anticipated on Thursday with high temperatures reaching the low 80s. Friday Morning will be a little bit milder to start with temperatures in the mid 60s. Afternoon readings are still expected to reach the low 80s despite increasing cloud cover. A shower cannot be ruled out however, long lasting and widespread activity is not anticipated. A stronger storm system will move into the region on Saturday with most of the area receiving showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the Central Gulf Coast as having a potential for severe storms. An early outlook would call damaging wind the main threat with action most likely before noon. Details will become clearer as we get closer—but keep an eye on this time period if you have outdoor plans Saturday. 

THE SCIENCE: Southerly flow and clear skies have allowed almost ideal conditions for fog formation over the last few nights as temperatures have slipped all the way back to the dew points. However, the one limiting factor has been wind speed. Only in coastal areas have winds been light enough to allow fog. As such, reduced visibility may be an issue the next two mornings if lighter winds allow. A weak cold front will slip into the area on Thursday into Friday but little to no precipitation is expected with this backdoor boundary. Clouds will build up ahead of an approaching upper level trough on Friday and an isolated shower can’t be ruled out Friday, but any activity would be short-lived. However, the much better rain and thunderstorm coverage will come on Saturday as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. That trough will move from the Lower Midwest into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Surface low pressure placement will be similar. Locally, upper level wind winds won’t be ideal for severe weather but with instability and moisture along advancing outflow from a cold front or dry line in Texas should help to maintain some stronger storms into the local area. The most likely scenario at this time would be a squall line with gusty winds, but it is too early to rule out other modes of severe weather as well. On the other side of the boundary, little change is expected. Temperatures will remain in the 80s/60s with a brief dry out before the next system. Overall, an active pattern will be underway with another storm chance early next week and perhaps a significant severe weather threat for the middle of next week.   

--Josh