Once again, a cold front will approach the area and threaten with some strong thunderstorms. Hopefully, the jacket is still nearby for the temperatures that will follow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers can be expected on Friday, though the afternoon does not look like a washout by any means. The best chance for a shower or thunderstorm will come mainly north of I-10 during the middle of the day. With southeast winds of 5-10mph, temperatures will climb into the mid 70s. Activity will ramp up overnight as a cold front and associated squall line approach the Baton Rouge area. The estimated timeline brings action into the northern part of the forecast area around 11pm, Baton Rouge around 2am and the Louisiana coast around 4am. As has been the case with the last few systems, this one could produce a few storms with gusty wind and hail. Temperatures will fall into the mid 60s as the front passes. Secure any loose, outdoor items before going to bed and make sure outdoor pets have a safe place to go. Also, make sure you have a way to receive alerts overnight, especially when you are asleep. You can freely activate and customize the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. In addition, follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates. 

Up Next: Clouds and showers may linger into Saturday as winds shift northerly. Without sun, thermometers may be steady or even fall into the afternoon hours. Thermometers should not rise beyond the mid 60s and could dip as low as the upper 50s. A spring chill is in store for Sunday morning with lows in the mid 40s. There will be a relative lull in precipitation chances before the next front comes by early next week.

THE EXPLANATION:

The next 500mb trough will begin to dig into the Eastern U.S. on Friday. Initially, a warm front will push through the area setting off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will push through late Friday night into early Saturday morning and will bring another threat for severe weather. Thanks to southerly flow off the Gulf, surface temperatures and dew points will be back into the warm and muggy categories but upper level thermal profiles will stay cool due to the advancing trough. Overnight, instability parameters and wind shear are expected to produce environmental conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms. Because the atmosphere will be largely capped prior to the arrival of strong frontal forcing, storms are expected to be linear. Along a southward advancing squall line, damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats, but we have seen isolated tornadoes spin up along these lines in the past so all types of severe weather remain possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed north Louisiana and Mississippi under an “enhanced risk” for severe thunderstorms, trimming it to a “slight risk” from southwest Mississippi to I-10 as the overnight loss of insolation should tend to weaken storms a little bit. The line is expected to enter northern parishes and counties right around midnight and reach the Louisiana coast before dawn. The cold front will push through the area on Saturday morning with post-frontal clouds and showers stubborn to exit. Northerly winds will transport chilly air into the region and temperatures will fall into the 50s, not recovering much in the afternoon. Once again, 40s will be possible on Sunday morning. Another warm front will quickly lift through the area late Sunday and for this reason considerable cloud cover and even spotty showers will be mentioned on Sunday night. The next trough will pass farther north of the area on Monday sending another front through the region with some showers. As that front exits, a longer period of quiet weather is in store as temperatures moderate during the middle and end of next week. 

--Dr. Josh

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