Some high rain totals came in a short time due to heavy thunderstorms on Tuesday evening. While it was attention grabbing, the flooding was not necessarily unexpected or unusual. Locations like I-110 at Governor’s Mansion and the Acadian Thruway underpass are common flooding culprits. Heavy rain is a daily possibility in summer storms but when it occurs over the urbanized Metro Area, more drainage issues are sure to occur. Additionally, when it occurs over a more populated area, more people will be affected and take notice. On Monday, similar amounts fell in part of our forecast area—rural Amite County and on the Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parish border. There were simply fewer infrastructure problems due to those areas being less populated. From a forecast standpoint, the storms themselves played out as expected but rain fell over a much larger portion of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area than anticipated. Approximately 80 percent of locations received rain when the call was for 40 percent coverage.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again pop during the late morning and early afternoon hours after a high temperature near 90 degrees. Gusty wind, downpours and frequent lightning will be possible. A few showers could hang overnight with a low temperature near 74 degrees.

Up Next: For the remainder of the week, afternoon action will continue to be scattered, but certainly not washout any part of the forecast area. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. The upcoming weekend is trending wet but a minor tweak to the expected tropical moisture field could result in a much more favorable outcome for outdoor events. As of now though, we are expecting widespread rain and storms on Father’s Day. Needless to say, forecast confidence is still not high, so stay tuned.

The Tropics: A large unorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea will move northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula through the remainder of the weak. The National Hurricane Center assigns this weak disturbance a low chance of development over the next five days as it emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, the associated moisture is likely to reach the western half of the Gulf Coast by the upcoming weekend, increasing rain chances and rain totals. However, there will be a sharp west to east cutoff in the moisture field so just a slight shift in this moisture would result in a drier forecast.

THE EXPLANATION:

With an upper level weakness between two slight 500mb ridges, the central Gulf Coast will remain in an active afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern. Through Wednesday, slightly drier mid level air will continue to support gusty winds from thunderstorms in addition to the usual downpours and frequent lightning. Due to the scattered nature of the precipitation, some locales will remain dry while others collect a quick inch or so of rain. The National Weather Service notes an area of showers and thunderstorms dropping south through Mississippi that could provide additional rain to the area overnight. By the weekend, forecast focus will turn to a plume of tropical moisture moving northwestward through the western Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are showing moisture stretching from Mexico all the way to Louisiana with the local area on the fringe of this moisture. This will be crucial as to how the weather actually pans out as any westward shift in deep moisture would mean much lower rain chances and totals. At this time, including the increased rain chances in the local area, the Weather Prediction Center has a 7-day rain total of 2-3 inches for southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Sunday looks to be the wettest day.

--Dr. Josh

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