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Tuesday morning video forecast
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A mainly clear week is ahead. Two cold fronts between Tuesday and the weekend will result in continued below average temperatures and possibly the coldest air so far this fall.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Another cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday. This one will come with little fanfare. Only a slight increase in winds is expected. Thermometers will reach the low 70s but may begin to fall even before sunset on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s with north winds of 5-10mph.
Up Next: Wednesday will be the coolest afternoon of the week with highs struggling for the 70 degrees followed by another night in the 40s. Through most of the workweek, skies will be clear and the air will be pleasant. As we approach the weekend, a cold front will push into the area. While precipitation is still questionable with this front, there is increasing potential for the coldest temperatures so far this fall season. The weekend afternoons may stay in the 60s and by Sunday morning, some areas could be waking up to the 30s!
The Tropics: The tropics are all quiet right now. However, by the end of the week, a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has a 50 percent chance of development. We will keep you posted.
THE EXPLANATION:
A sharp shortwave mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will cut across the area on Tuesday. A moisture-starved boundary, no rain is expected with little to no uptick in clouds either. The only sign of an advancing cold front will be increasing wind speeds and a significant drop in temperatures. On Tuesday night, lows will have no problem achieving the low to mid 40s across much of the forecast area— just a touch warmer along the coast. The cold pool associated with the trough will stay in place through Wednesday with high temperatures struggling to reach 70 degrees. The cool, dry air mass will continue to support mainly clear skies. For the end of the week, expect a ridge to shift east allowing winds to come in off of the Gulf. With the late fall push of moisture a little weaker, another dry day is anticipated Thursday but temperatures will be a bit more mild. With another fairly cool night, but increasing dew points and light winds, some fog could be an issue Thursday night. The forecast gets considerably more difficult and therefore interesting on Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show another deep trough and front moving across the forecast area. However, the GFS is much more progressive with this system and there is a timing difference of almost a day on the front and unsettled weather accompanying it. In addition to this, both forecast models have trended drier and drier over the last 24 hours and including the GEM model there is currently no precipitation forecast. Therefore, a period of increased cloudiness can be expected and at this time we will carry just low rain chances for Friday night into Saturday. Both models agree that a frontal passage will occur by Saturday afternoon with much cooler air in place for Sunday. Some lows in the 30s could be possible for the first time this fall season.
--Josh
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