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Tuesday evening video forecast
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The forecast is as copy and paste as one might expect for the last week of July in Baton Rouge. The good news is that means the tropics have nothing for us at this time.
Next 24 Hours: The pattern is rather predictable; showers will end this evening followed by clearing skies. Low temperatures will basin around 75 degrees. High temperatures will climb to 94 degrees on Wednesday in response to some early sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out during late morning and remain possible through late afternoon.
It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.
10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain
30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain
60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain
Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember
Up Next: Thursday and Friday will offer virtual repeat weather with temperatures and daily rain coverage remaining the same and close to seasonable averages. The bottom line is, along the Gulf Coast, when you are locked into a typical summer weather pattern, there can be very little change to the forecast for days to weeks at a time. By this weekend, we might we see a slight tweak in rain coverage as the upper level pattern alters slightly. Each day, highs and lows should be within a degree or two of the averages of 92 and 74. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.
The Explanation: An upper level ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will continue to influence the local weather this week. The relatively small size of this ridge will create a gradient in rain coverage across the forecast area. Closer to the coast will be farther from the center of the ridge and therefore have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Farther inland will be closer to the center of the ridge and therefore have a lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable leading to briefly heavy storms with downpours and frequent lightning. Temperatures will not stray far from average with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Into the weekend, rain coverage will likely trim back a bit. One item that could change this is a weak, upper level trough of low pressure moving west-northwest from the Bahamas toward the Gulf of Mexico. If this subtle impulse can hold together, it would provide cooler temperatures aloft and therefore more instability for a continuation of (at least) scattered showers and thunderstorms. Actually, the colder air aloft would even lend to some of the storms being capable of gusty winds. Either way, even if the trough makes it here, it would exit by the end of the weekend followed by a strengthening upper level ridge of high pressure, which could return heat advisory conditions to the region.
--Josh
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