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Tuesday 4-30 morning weather
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We are slowly transitioning into a more late spring-like pattern. Humidity is rising and some daytime heating showers and thunderstorms may soon be a part of the forecast.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Another partly sunny and warm afternoon is ahead in the Capital Area. Look for high temperatures to make a run at the mid to upper 80s once again as southeast winds allow a bit more humidity to be felt. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the upper 60s.
Up Next: On Wednesday and Thursday, clouds will build up but just a stray shower will be possible. As temperatures remain warm and moisture from the Gulf increases, enough instability will finally be in place by to spark a few showers by Friday. Additionally, a stronger upper level disturbance will increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the scattered category. Some action may carry into the weekend as well. These showers will be strongly driven by daytime warming.
The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 41.2’ as of Tuesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition, at 115 days this ties the second longest period above flood stage. Heavy rain north of the area will cause the river to remain steady or slowly rise through Mid-May. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Stephensville and around Lake Palourde. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year.
THE EXPLANATION:
An upper level ridge over the southeast United States will continue to promote dry, mild weather through Tuesday. Nominal rain chances will creep up on Wednesday and Thursday as a slightly stronger trough pushes north of the area. Again, this will keep the greatest possibility of an isolated shower north of I-12. Finally, by Friday, a third shortwave trough will take a slightly father south track and introduce enough lift to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Onshore flow will have become well established by this time, so moisture will not be an issue and daytime warming should help initiate some precipitation. The trough will deepen across the Southeast and maintain enough instability for diurnal convection through at least Saturday. Some areas of positive vorticity advection, difficult to time at this point, may provide some enhancement in rain coverage at times as well. At this time, Friday and Saturday look like the busiest of the forecast period. The extended run of temperatures on forecast models is showing above average temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.
--Josh
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