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Thursday morning video forecast
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A weak disturbance will swing through the region Thursday afternoon through Friday evening with returning clouds and a few showers. Nicer weather is expected for the weekend.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Expect clouds to build up through Thursday, which will prevent high temperatures from making it much farther than 60 degrees. Winds will be easterly at 5mph. A few showers will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, but most of the light activity will stay south and east of Baton Rouge. Overnight will be cloudy with isolated showers, especially east of Baton Rouge, and low temperatures in the upper 40s.
Up Next: Showers will diminish through Friday. Temperatures will be in the low 60s. By the weekend, a drier trend will emerge with thermometers climbing back above average. Each afternoon should feature some sunshine. These conditions will persist until the next frontal system sweeps the area Monday into Tuesday. At this far out time, it appears that system needs to be monitored for the potential of severe weather. Colder air will follow for Tuesday and Wednesday.
THE EXPLANATION:
The next upper level disturbance will move into the Lower Midwest on Thursday, drawing moisture from a stalled front back to the north. These two features will combine to return rain showers to the area Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. The highest coverage in rain will occur south and east of Baton Rouge. Elsewhere, showers will be isolated and rather light. After this system, thermometers will moderate to slightly above average over the weekend with dry conditions. The next storm system will sweep through the region Monday and Tuesday. While it is early, forecast model guidance points to a surface low pressure system moving from southeast Texas into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and this track can be favorable for severe weather. We will need to monitor the parameters leading up to this event to hone in on that potential. A cold front will sweep through the area on Tuesday morning returning below average temperatures for the middle of next week.
--Josh
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