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Monday 6-3 morning weather
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Expect the heat to stay on full blast through Tuesday. This week will offer up better rain chances for those lawns and gardens that have spent the better part of two weeks dry.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Your new week will pick up where the weekend left off weather wise. Mostly to partly sunny skies are anticipated with slim precipitation chances. It will be hot with a high temperature near 96 and enough humidity around for a feels-like temperature to make it over 100 in the afternoon. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low near 74.
Up Next: Slightly above average highs will continue through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a trough developing over Texas will help to bring better chances for rain and thunderstorms. This system will tap into some moisture from a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf and the result will be scattered activity with healthy rain coverage of 40 to 60 percent each day mid-week through early weekend. As a result, highs will be limited to the upper 80s while lows stay in the mid 70s.
The Tropics: Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. However, the low does not have a well-defined central circulation. It will move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and may become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Development chances are set around 60 percent. Eventually, the associated moisture may be drawn northward to enhance development of showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast.
The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.1’ as of Monday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 148 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. With continued heavy rain events in the Midwest, runoff will result in a second, higher crest in early June. The current forecast is for the level to reach 44.5’, which would be one of the top five highest crests on record. The Morganza Spillway will be opened to mitigate flood risk downstream into the Baton Rouge area. This will increase water levels over unprotected areas over the Atchafalaya Basin. If you have property or interests in the floodway, for specific inundation levels, you are encouraged to visit this link. On the Mississippi River, the high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.
THE EXPLANATION:
An upper level ridge remains positioned over the central Gulf Coast keeping the atmosphere warm and stable while northeast winds hold slightly drier air. The result has been mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures. This setup will prevent organized precipitation development through Tuesday. An upper level trough will move across Texas and Louisiana from the middle of the week through the early part of the weekend. In replacing the ridge, this feature will allow enough instability for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Aiding this system will be a plume of moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect scattered to possibly widespread coverage in rain and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday through Friday. We can expect 1-2 inches of rainfall through this stretch with higher amounts where storm downpours occur. Keep in mind, while that seems high in the cool season, about 1 inch is needed per week to keep lawns and gardens healthy in the summer heat.
--Josh
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