UPDATE - 1 p.m. Tuesday: Despite what computer model guidance suggested all morning long, the Storm Station expects a wave of showers and thunderstorms to pass through the capital area on Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is growing in this scenario based on radar trends and an analysis of the overall environment.

(6/4/2024 @ 1245pm) Despite models showing a line of storms decaying, we don't necessarily buy it. There's lots of storm energy - or instability - for the storms to "feed upon." Showers and storms will likely roll into the region by mid to late afternoon. #LAwx pic.twitter.com/eqaDQV36vJ

— Malcolm Byron (@mbyronwx) June 4, 2024

Have the rain gear on standby through the early evening on Tuesday. There is also a chance that the rain could affect parts of the afternoon drive. By sunset, the rain departs leaving us with a partly cloudy sky on Tuesday night.

-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

ORIGINAL STORY: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible once again Tuesday afternoon as an active storm system forming in the Plains early Tuesday will move towards southern Louisiana throughout the day. The second half of the workweek features slightly lower rain chances as we shift to a drier and warmer weather pattern. 

Today & Tonight: Tuesday will start off with temperatures in the low 70's across southern Louisiana. A few, light showers may be around during the morning, especially in southern Mississippi, but most will stay dry to start off the day. A mix of sun and clouds will dominate throughout Tuesday with winds out of the south between 10-15 mph and afternoon high's warming near 91° in Baton Rouge. 

As an active weather pattern continues in the Plains today, a line of stronger storms is expected to form in Oklahoma early Tuesday morning and move southeastward throughout the day today. If the system stays intact, it could bring isolated thunderstorms to the Capital Region this afternoon. Around 40% coverage with these storms is anticipated today with areas north of I-10/12 having the best probability of seeing stronger storms develop. However, any thunderstorms that arrive to southeast Louisiana will be capable of downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind. 

Up Next: Beginning Wednesday, we will transition to a more summer-like pattern with a slight chance for pop-up, spotty storms each day. Through Friday, skies will be partly sunny with highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the low to mid-70s. By the end of the workweek, a weak front will move in from the north, possibly bringing a few showers and thunderstorms with it. Behind the front temperatures will stay warm, but we could see a slight decrease in humidity. 

The Tropics: For the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic Ocean, all is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next seven days.

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real time weather updates HERE.

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-- Emma Kate Cowan 

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