Tropical Storm Debby is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This storm has winds topping out at 65 mph and it is moving NNW at 13 mph. Debby will track through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, before making landfall as a Hurricane early Monday. This system poses no direct threat to Louisiana.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form. The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 knots based on a significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one. This keeps the slow-moving center near the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

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