Most across the WBRZ Weather forecast area have picked up between 2 and 8 inches of rain. This is no small amount, but fortunately not the 10-20 inches that were being forecast prior to landfall. Gusty wind and isolated, brief tornadoes and have created scattered tree and powerline damage. After one more active day, the tropical weather pattern will start to ease by mid-week.

A ***FLASH FLOOD WATCH*** remains in effect through 6pm Monday for the entire forecast area. Radar estimates a range of 2 to 8 inches of rain has fallen across the area since Saturday. Especially in locations that have experienced the heavier totals, an additional 2 to 3 inches plus will cause problems. Expect street and poor drainage flooding and smaller streams may come above bankfull.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: One more intense round of rain and thunderstorms appears possible for the first half of Monday. Like Sunday, this activity could be accompanied by embedded tornadoes and rain rates should be heavy enough to produce poor drainage issues or flash flooding. Wind will slacken, except in rain bands where some gusts are possible. A bit of sun could peek out allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 80s. Of course, any sun would also help charge up the “Barry energy” for more numerous showers and thunderstorms. As many return to work Monday, PLEASE remember not to drive across flooded roads. If it is raining so hard that you cannot see what is happening on the road below, consider pulling off until visibility improves. Overnight, rainfall should really taper. A tropical air mass will stay in place with muggy lows in the mid 70s and light, south winds.  

Up Next: Enough Barry moisture will be around to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. This will likely disguise as more typical summer weather as high and low temperatures move closer to normal. The end of the week will be warmer with lower rain coverage.

The Tropics: Barry has degenerated into a remnant low. Tropical moisture will continue to enhance rainfall across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday and the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 42.2’ as of Monday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 191 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. The level will slowly fall, but is likely to stay above flood stage for several weeks to come. The high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

The moisture axis from Barry’s remnants will remain across the forecast area through Monday, but then become less pronounced by Tuesday. As a result, forecast rain coverage will remain elevated with bands capable of producing high rates in a short time. Some instances of areal and flash flooding remain possible. These could be aggravated by the simple fact that many more people will venture out as a new workweek begins, so stay vigilant and exercise caution on the roads. The deeper low should open up into a wave of low pressure by Wednesday with just enough lingering moisture to aid scattered convection Tuesday and Wednesday—especially with daytime warming. However, less action overall will result in warmer high temperatures, closer to the seasonal averages near 90 degrees. Nights will remain muggy and in the mid 70s. A broad upper level ridge will build over the region Friday through the weekend leading to a warmer and slightly drier pattern. 

--Josh

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