As a stalled pattern dissipates north of the Baton Rouge area, a drier transitional day is ahead. A familiar, late spring pattern will then take hold through the Memorial Day Weekend. On Wednesday, rain coverage was more isolated than expected but did occur primarily north of I-10 as forecast.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday looks a bit quieter than Wednesday. Stray showers over the Atchafalaya Basin should rapidly diminish through the morning. Very few, if any, showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon and partly sunny skies will drive highs close to 90 degrees. Overnight will be mostly clear and muggy with lows near 70 degrees.

Up Next: Friday through Sunday, we should see the traditional pop-up afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s around midday before clouds bubble up and any showers develop. Locations that manage to dodge the pop-ups could hit 90. A sign of ample humidity, nighttime lows will stay in the low 70s. An upper level disturbance will likely lead to an increase of rain and thunderstorm activity early next week.

It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances, or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak front that stalled over the area Wednesday will drift back to the north and diminish on Thursday. Southerly winds will allow humid, Gulf of Mexico air to push inland. However, upper level moisture will lessen temporarily and this will lead to very few showers and thunderstorms developing on Thursday. Deeper southerly flow will gradually increase atmospheric moisture though. Therefore, Friday through Memorial Day will bring a familiar and repetitive pattern of early warmth and humidity followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That is, some will see them, some will not and no single day will be a washout. Again, any of these warm season thunderstorms can be attention getting with downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind. Early next week, forecast model guidance points to a shortwave trough move across the Lower Midwest, possibly accompanied by a cold front. At the very least, the cooler temperatures aloft due to the trough will increase rain coverage for a few days. If the front makes it into the area there could be a focus for more significant rain and thunderstorm activity and perhaps some air mass changes.       
--Josh

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