Expect an unsettled weather pattern this week with increased rain chances Wednesday through Friday. A couple of inches are possible by Saturday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With mainly cloudy skies, temperatures won’t climb too high on your Monday Afternoon. Numbers will generally top out in the low 80s. A warm front will be lifting through the region and as a result increased humidity will be noticed—especially later in the day. The boundary will also squeeze out a few showers and storms. A washout is not expected. Overnight, clouds and spotty showers will stay in the forecast with muggier lows in the upper 60s.   

Up Next: Tuesday will offer more of a “summer-like” scenario with warmth and humidity, perhaps a few breaks of sunshine, and pop-up thundershowers. Highs will climb into the mid 80s. Wednesday through Friday, a front will stall out over Louisiana and a very wet, repetitive pattern will commence. Rounds of rain and storms are forecast each afternoon with high temperatures in the low 80s and lows near 70 degrees.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A warm front lifting through the region will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms today. An upper level disturbance detected on the water vapor imagery in Southeastern Texas will also add a pop to precipitation development during the afternoon hours. In addition to waves of energy aloft, daily activity should be aided by daytime warmth and fluctuations in the position of the marine breeze. With the warm front displaced north, a little less action is expected Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, a cold front approaching Louisiana will become the main focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Areas of vorticity riding over that boundary will be able to force out rounds of rain and storms. With a uniform wind direction at all levels of the atmosphere, the front will not progress much Wednesday through Friday and with a thoroughly saturated air mass, thunderstorms will be able to produce heavy rain. The persistence of the pattern will perhaps raise some flood concerns by the end of the week. Early projections from the Weather Prediction Center are in the 4-6” range. There may also be a risk for severe weather as well—we’ll evaluate those conditions as we get closer.     

--Josh

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