As of Sunday afternoon, Invest 99L remains an unorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms over northwestern Cuba, however it has become slightly better defined. This area of low pressure has survived the harshest conditions it will encounter, including terrain and dry air intrusion. There is still a little wind shear left however that the system will deal with in the short term.

As the system is now exiting this environment, conditions have become slightly more favorable for development as Invest-99L nears the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center gives the wave a 60% chance, or a moderate risk, of becoming a named stormed over the next two days.

Still, residents in Southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, heavy rain and some strong winds are likely. While some models bring the storm near Louisiana, most bring the storm only as far west as Mobile, Ala. Some models develop the storm while others leave it as a disorganized mess of thunderstorms. The general agreement is that it will likely impact the eastern Gulf of Mexico if it survives. Unfortunately, like last week, there is just too much uncertainty with this system. A new advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be issued this evening, and this story will be updated near that time.

For Louisiana, it is important to remember this system is still just a messy cluster of clouds. Without a well-defined center, Invest-99L will not be classified as a tropical cyclone. Additionally, such poor organization makes it very difficult for often reliable forecast models to pinpoint a track or intensity. Certainly, don’t let your guard down. Use this as a reminder of all that hurricane season preparation in June. Review your storm plan and stay in touch with the forecast. Seek out and share good information from the WBRZ Weather Team and the National Hurricane Center. Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux will give an update this evening at 5:30 p.m. on WBRZ Channel 2.