The second half of the workweek will see the same unseasonably warm mornings and afternoons, with a slight increase in rain chances by Friday. Hurricane Rafael has made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa just east of Playa Majana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be near 115 mph. The storm is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, but will likely come to a halt and weaken in a hostile Gulf environment. 

Scroll down to The Tropics section for the latest on Hurricane Rafael.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Tonight, temperatures will drop a few degrees lower than previous nights. Lows will be near 73 degrees in Baton Rouge. Light, northeast winds may also allow for possible fog development around sunrise. Another unseasonably warm day is expected Thursday. Highs will get close to 90, possibly setting the latest 90 degree temperature in the calendar year for the fifth time in 2024. The record high for the day is 88 set back in 2022. Skies will be partly sunny. 

Up Next: Friday will be warm and muggy with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Increasing clouds tied to moisture from Rafael in the central Gulf of Mexico may give way to isolated showers. 

This Weekend: Saturday and Sunday depend on the exact position of Hurricane Rafael. It is now highly likely that the storm will remain offshore and not directly strike Louisiana. However, the closer it moves to the coast, the more likely that periods of rain will affect the state. That is the next detail that will be ironed out in the coming days. For now, you should be prepared for scattered showers both days, with the idea that the forecast could trend drier if the system slides farther south and west. Of course, given a tropical system in the region there may be a breeze and some minor coastal flooding as well. In either case, there should be a good deal of cloud cover which will limit high temperatures to the mid 80s but humid air will keep low temperatures in the low 70s. 

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The Tropics: Hurricane Rafael is now a Category 3 crossing western Cuba. On Thursday, the hurricane will emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and slowly churn west-northwestward. The latest forecast track no longer includes southern Louisiana as there is growing confidence that the system will remain in the central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend as it begins to weaken. 

The Storm Station expects the system to be rapidly weaken as it passes into the central Gulf of Mexico. Relatively cooler water temperatures, dry air and wind shear will all make a more hostile environment for the storm. Stay tuned to the Storm Station Forecast through the week, and bookmark the Hurricane Center for new storm information every three hours.

It is worth noting that Louisiana has never experienced a landfall by a named system in the month of November. Should that occur, it would be unprecedented. But with a lack of cold fronts cleanly passing through to help shield the region from the system in the coming days, it is worth monitoring.

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