Expect one more mainly dry afternoon before another unsettled set of days carries us into the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Thursday will offer partial sunshine. Clouds will tend to increase from the afternoon into the evening. High temperatures will be above average, in the low 80s. Speaking of above average—lows should be in the low 50s this time of year. Instead we expect a reading near 70 overnight as clouds continue to thicken.

Looking Ahead: Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region on Friday. The storms are not expected to be severe; however, some rain may hang around for evening football games. Having started around 70, temperatures will still make it back to a sticky high near 80. Muggy temperatures in the low 70s will continue through Saturday along with periods of rain. 1-3" can be expected by the time things wrap up; flooding does not look like a serious threat right now. Wet weather is not only in expected in Baton Rouge, but also in Tuscaloosa for the Tigers vs. Tide game. If you’ll be travelling to the game, dress for a chilly rain, with kickoff temperatures around 60.

Much better weather is expected, behind the front, for fans traveling to Pine Bluff, Arkansas to watch the Southern Jaguars. There, cooler and drier air will have arrived by game time, with any lingerign showers gone by kickoff.

For the second half of the weekend, Louisiana and Mississippi will cool down and dry out. Partly sunny skies and a crisp high of 66 is the current call for Sunday.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: Forecast models have found better agreement as to how the next storm system will affect the region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a slow moving cold front on Friday. This front will be far away from the surface low pressure over the Great Lakes and upper trough across the northern tier. Thus, it will become trapped, oriented southwest to northeast in a similarly flowing jet stream. This means the push through will be slow, but gradual. Showers will continue through Saturday with 1-2” of rain across the area by Sunday Morning. Here is where previously the GFS and ECMWF models were at complete odds. Now, both show a surface high pressure system settling into the Upper Mississippi River Valley that will bump the front southeastward. Cooler and drier air will move in behind, serving to clear skies and break humidity on Sunday. Temperatures will be at or below average for the second half of the weekend into early next week as a result. The area will see some sunshine as well.

 --Josh

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