A stalled front to the west may aid development of a stray shower on Wednesday. Then, surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will create a hot, mainly dry pattern late week through Memorial Day Weekend. 

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After another muggy beginning, Wednesday will be warm and humid with high temperatures in the low 90s. There could be a stray shower or thunderstorm but measurable rain coverage will be less than 10 percent. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the low 70s.

Up Next: A strong mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the Southeast U.S. beginning Thursday, allowing for an essentially rain-free period that will stay the course into the weekend. This ridge will also steadily increase high temperatures into the low to mid 90s through Memorial Day. The ridge will be the dominate weather feature, protecting the area from any organized storm systems and keeping ample sunshine around. For now, humidity will be “in-check” and not to summer levels but you will notice a little. If you are vacationing along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle, similar hot and dry conditions are expected.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 44.0’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 137 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. Cresting now, the level will not start to fall until at least this weekend. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Stephensville and around Lake Palourde. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year.

THE EXPLANATION:

A cold front will approach Louisiana before stalling on Wednesday, but may get close enough to provide isolated precipitation in the northwestern corner of the forecast area. By Thursday, a surface high pressure that extends into the upper levels as a ridge will become more dominant. The result will be sinking and diverging air at the surface, which will mean warmer than average temperatures and a lot of sunshine. Highs will easily reach the 90s with some mid 90s possible for the upcoming weekend. Humidity will be there, but not quite to summer levels with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s producing feels-like temperatures in the upper 90s. 

Here is some interesting science presented by @NWSNewOrleans in this morning's #weather discussion! #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/TgS5WKGj4Q

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) May 22, 2019

--Josh

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