Rain coverage should slowly dwindle through the upcoming week, especially as deeper tropical moisture pulls away to the west. That area of moisture was originally expected to create a very wet Father’s Day but by Friday, the WBRZ Weather began to note a westward push in the higher rain chances and totals. This trend continued into the weekend and indeed Father’s Day did not pan out too bad with only a few showers and storms out there.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies will kick off the new workweek but showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin ramp up through the late morning hours. Temperatures will reach a high of 90 degrees with a low of 74 overnight.

The Tropics: A tropical low is still lingering in the Gulf of Mexico with little chance of development. There is little organization, but it is working together with the strong high pressure along the East Coast to feed moisture to the central and western Gulf Coast. This high is encroaching into the eastern Gulf and across Florida, helping to keep the majority of that area dry. Conditions are much wetter across western Louisiana and into Texas, as the tropical low is much closer. The local area is caught between continuing to see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, the low with either dissipate or have its moisture stolen by a passing frontal system to our north. This will open the door to an upper level ridge to form, as a surface high pressure strengthens in the Gulf returning the area to a more normal pattern of afternoon pop up showers.

Up Next: Tuesday through Friday will bring diminishing rain chances. With scattered, 40 percent rain coverage on Tuesday only isolated, 20 percent rain coverage is expected by Friday. Highs will climb into the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. For the first weekend of summer, average weather is on tap. Saturday and Sunday will be warm and humid with highs in the 92 to 94 degree range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible but there will be plenty of dry time and plenty of locations that will miss showers altogether.

THE EXPLANATION:

An inverted trough in the northwest Gulf of Mexico will continue to hug the western Gulf Coast with a tropical air mass from southwest Louisiana into Texas. The local area sits on the fringe of this deeper tropical moisture but falling precipitable water values already not a decline in available moisture. An upper level ridge will drift southeast settling over the northeastern Gulf by the end of the week. Moisture will be shoved northwest of the area and subsidence will quell some convective development. The result of these changes will be diminishing rain coverage through the week. The translation is that scattered showers and thunderstorms will become isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

--Dr. Josh

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