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Rafael will miss Louisiana but may work with a front to create weekend showers

2 hours 9 minutes 10 seconds ago Thursday, November 07 2024 Nov 7, 2024 November 07, 2024 3:15 PM November 07, 2024 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

Hurricane Rafael will not make a landfall in Louisiana this weekend. However, associated moisture could help to bring some showers to the region. 

Scroll down to The Tropics section for the latest on Hurricane Rafael.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Look for mostly cloudy skies overnight with any light showers ending by midnight. Winds will be a bit elevated and eliminate any fog chances. Temperatures will remain well above average, in the low to mid 70s with the same sticky feel in the air. Friday will be warm and muggy with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Increasing clouds tied to moisture from Rafael in the central Gulf of Mexico may give way to isolated showers during the day. 

This Weekend: Saturday and Sunday depend on the exact position of Hurricane Rafael and a weak cold front moving towards the state from the west. Rafael will remain offshore and not directly strike Louisiana. However, that weak cold front will help to draw moisture from Rafael north and motivate showers and thunderstorms to develop both days. Since the front will stall in western Louisiana, the question to answer will be how far east the associated precipitation can stray. For now, the majority of the activity is favored to stay west of the Mississippi River on Saturday and then squirm a little farther east overnight into Sunday. There is more certainty in ample cloud cover and the same humidity we have been feeling. Nights will stay very sticky with lows in the low 70s and a little less sun will keep highs in the mid rather than upper 80s.   

For now, you should be prepared for scattered showers and storms both days, with the idea that the forecast could trend drier if both systems end up further away from our area. Of course, given a tropical system in the region there may be a breeze and some minor coastal flooding as well. For LSU and Southern fans, take rain gear and ponchos out to the games in case you need it occasionally but Saturday does not look like a washout.

Up Next: A weak cold front will push through the area on Monday afternoon pushing the humidity down a little for the middle of the week. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid 80s, but lower humidity will allow low temperatures to back into the mid 60s; these number are cooler compared to recent days but still way above average. By the end of the week, a more significant cold front will push much cooler temperatures across the central Gulf Coast with a chance that temperatures near seasonal averages of 70s over 40s by Thursday and Friday. 


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The Tropics: Hurricane Rafael has started to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico. Rafael crossed over western Cuba on Wednesday as a major, category three storm but has weakened to a category two with winds of 105mph. Continued weakening is expected as Rafael travels west where it will encounter dry air and wind shear. By late weekend the system will be a tropical storm and could fizzle out completely in the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Stay tuned to the Storm Station Forecast through the weekend, and bookmark the Hurricane Center for new storm information every three hours. 

It is worth noting that Louisiana has never experienced a landfall by a named system in the month of November. Should that occur, it would be unprecedented. But with a lack of cold fronts cleanly passing through to help shield the region from the system in the coming days, it is worth monitoring.

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