Showers and thunderstorms return to the area this afternoon, followed by a break and another quick shot Thursday.

Today and Tonight: Tuesday won’t be entirely overcast, but clouds should increase during the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches. Highs will make it into the upper 70s. Winds will be southwest at 5-10mph. Showers and thunderstorms will become possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated but there could be an isolated strong storm with gusty wind—especially north of Interstates 10/12. Shower action will ease by midnight with lows back in the upper 40s.

Moving ahead: Wednesday will be sunny and seasonable with highs in the upper 60s. Thursday returns highs to the 70s and the chance for a shower or thunderstorms as a fast moving cold front slides through. By Friday, a drier pattern will emerge with a warming trend into the weekend. Friday through Sunday will bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows near 50.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A positively tilted trough will move from the Midwest into the Southeastern United States by Wednesday Morning. At the surface, a cold front stretching from Ohio to Texas will cross the area tonight. At this time, CAPE is modest with helicity values marginal. With the surface low much farther north, the severe weather ingredients are fairly limited. Thus, we’re in agreement with the SPC’s “marginal/slight risk” near the Louisiana/Mississippi border and believe that, aside from a stray strong storm, most severe weather will stay north of the forecast area. In fact, model simulations are not aggressive at all and the rain amounts should stay low with most locations picking up less the 0.25”. The region will briefly clear out and tick below average on Wednesday before another fast moving shortwave cuts through the mean flow on Thursday. Again, a weak front will pass through the area with just a few showers and thunderstorms. This instance actually presents slightly better ingredients for strong storms, but the threat still appears low for severe weather. The front will have little to no effect on temperatures. High pressure will control the region Friday through Sunday with temperatures warming above average. There is a strong indication that next week will bring well above average temperatures with some highs in the 80s possible.        

--Josh

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