A pair of nice, mild days is ahead. The next cold front will come Friday and deliver even bigger changes.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With northerly winds behind a cold front, a much drier air mass will lead to a comfortably warm afternoon. Under sunny skies, high temperatures will top out near 80 degrees. Overnight will be clear with low temperatures in the mid 50s.  

Up Next: Clear skies and lower humidity will last through Thursday. By Friday afternoon, warmth and humidity will surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of another cold front. That boundary will be more potent than the most recent and will bring more coverage in rain and substantially cooler temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will roll across the area from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. One or two could be strong. Temperatures will be reduced to 10 degrees below average as Sunday morning lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s around the area.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 40.5’ as of Wednesday morning. The river is expected to fall slowly over the coming weeks. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at this level.

THE EXPLANATION:

Drier air will be felt through Thursday morning though afternoons will still be warm in the low 80s. South winds will take hold once again by Thursday night before yet another cold front moves in on Friday. This second cold front will bring a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The parent upper level trough will move well north and east of the local area leaving unfavorable winds for widespread, organized severe thunderstorms.

However, warmth and moisture returning to the area ahead of the front, along with a more significant clash in air masses, may help a few storms attain severe status with gusty wind and hail. At this time, forecast model guidance is pinging on a squall line moving through the region on Friday evening. The front will also come with a much more robust continental air mass. Thermometers will be about 10 degrees below average for highs and lows next Saturday and Sunday. Record lows could occur on Sunday morning with isolated pockets north and east of Baton Rouge possibly dipping into the upper 40s. 

  --Josh

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