Hurricane Francine continues to strengthen early Wednesday morning, now likely to become a category two storm with winds up to 100mph before landfall. Impacts will be felt as early as Wednesday morning; make sure weather alerts are on and check-in for the latest forecast throughout the day. 

Scroll farther down the page for the post-Francine forecast.

The Latest On Francine: Francine continues to strengthen with the 7 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The storm remains a strong Category 1 hurricane with peak winds at 90 mph as it moves northeast at 12mph. Francine is still in short window of time where the system could intensify and is expected to gain enough strength to become a Category 2 storm later this morning. Landfall is likely on Wednesday afternoon between Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays at or slightly below peak intensity. The latest forecast shows a landfall as a Category 2 storm with peak winds at 100 mph.

While impacts can and will be felt all around the center of the storm, the strongest winds and heaviest rain is typically found north and east of center. Some computer model guidance continues to suggest the storm taking a more eastward track. Should that trend hold and come to pass, this would lessen the severity of impacts along and west of Baton Rouge. Although western locations might benefit from this kind of shift, that would occur to the detriment of those to the east where impacts would increase.

The latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center still shows a path through the Baton Rouge metro. This is relatively unchanged from recent advisories, despite what some computer models suggest. It is worth noting that the National Hurricane Center track forecast have shown to be more consistent with lower errors than individual models used in track forecasting. Even so, an eastward shift in track closer to New Orleans is a trend worth monitoring.

Francine will quickly weaken upon landfall while jogging northeast across southeast Louisiana. Francine will pull away from the region on Thursday morning with rain ending and winds slowly easing.

Pay close attention to the forecast leading up to landfall and review your hurricane preparedness plan. Minor track and strength adjustments may still come up to landfall as new data arrives. Keep up to date with the latest forecast. The Storm Station has you covered on-air, online, and on social media. Download the free, WBRZ weather app HERE to find out first when new tropical updates become available.

A ***HURRICANE WARNING*** is in effect along the Louisiana coast including East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, St. James, Iberville, Assumption and St. Mary Parishes. Expect sustained winds in the ballpark of 30-40 mph with gusts over 75 mph for our covered parishes in this region. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.

A ***HURRICANE WATCH*** has been issued farther east for Livingston and southern Tangipahoa Parishes, along with the rest of the Northshore and New Orleans metro. While these areas are under a Tropical Storm Warning now, they may get upgraded to Hurricane Warnings depending on future track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

A ***TROPICAL STORM WARNING*** is in effect for Point Coupee, West and East Feliciana, Livingston, St. Helena, and Tangipahoa Parishes. Expect sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph for these areas. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives. 

Impacts will begin across southern Louisiana on Wednesday morning, lasting through Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Heavy Rain/Flooding: 3-6" of rain is possible in Metro Baton Rouge, with higher amounts perhaps in the ballpark of 8"+ closer to where the center of the system tracks. The steadiest and heaviest rain will occur Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Typical trouble spots may hold water, and southeast-facing shores will face minor to moderate coastal flooding. This forecast is closely tied to the track of Francine. A shift east would take the highest rain totals east with it.

A ***FLOOD WATCH*** has been issued for the entirety of south Louisiana. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. A Flood Watch means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.

Tornadoes: The latest trajectory places the much of southeast Louisiana on the right, forward side of the storm. It is this part where tornadoes are often found. Areas near and west of Baton Rouge will be closer to the center of circulation, or on the western side of it. There, the tornado threat would lessen.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas east of Baton Rouge under a Level 2/5 risk of severe weather on Wednesday, with the primary threat being spin-up tornadoes. Baton Rogue is under a Level 1/5 risk. The Level 2 zone is the region of primary concern for tornadoes, with a lesser but non-zero threat in the Level 1 zone.

Tropical tornadoes tend to develop quickly and be short-lived. Have a way to receive alerts and be alert to Tornado Warnings beginning Wednesday. For more on tornado safety, CLICK HERE.

Wind: Areas near the center of circulation could experience hurricane-force winds, especially for those closer to the coast. Farther inland and away from the center, tropical storm-force (39 mph+) winds are possible with higher hurricane-force (74 mph+) at times. Winds will ramp up on Wednesday afternoon and peak Wednesday evening, before subsiding on Thursday.

Storm Surge: Winds associated with Francine will push water toward the immediate coastline. Anywhere from 5 to 10 feet of storm surge is possible from Vermillion Bay to Port Fourchon. 3 to 5 feet of surge are possible along Lake Pontchartrain and Maurepas. This is primarily an issue for non-levee protected areas.

A ***STORM SURGE WARNING*** is in effect along the immediate coastline and the Northshore.

This is a life-threatening situation for areas affected. Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. Be on the lookout for evacuation orders from officials and leave immediately if ordered.

The following is the forecast following Francine.

After Francine: Conditions will dramatically improve on Thursday. There may be some lingering breezes and isolated showers in the wake of Francine, but the day will otherwise feature a mix of sun and clouds with humidity and highs in the mid-80s. Ample sunshine and dry conditions will stick around Friday through the weekend but it will feel much like late summer with highs in the lower-90s, lows in the low-70s and some mugginess. CLICK HERE for the full Storm Station 7-Day Forecast. 

Click the icons below for resources ahead of Francine: 

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