THE FORECAST:

 Tonight and Tomorrow: Conditions will continue to dry through the evening, as clouds will also break up to lead to mostly clear skies tonight. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 9 PM, eventually reaching an overnight low of 72° with calm winds. More isolated afternoon storms expected on Sunday which should develop earlier in the afternoon, mainly between the hours of 1 PM and 6 PM. Highs will peak near 90° with light winds out of the east.    

Up Next:  Isolated afternoon showers stay the course through the weekend, as highs stay in the low 90s on Sunday. Temperatures are poised to drop to near average next week, as a cold front should break through and into the Gulf on Monday. A second, stronger front later in the week should suppress high temperatures to the 70s next weekend.

The Tropics:

We are currently monitoring two waves located over the Atlantic Ocean.

The first is a non-tropical low pressure system that is expected to develop over the North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores in a few days. Some subtropical or tropical development is possible while the low moves westward through the middle of next week. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, but that increases to a 50% chance within the next 5 days.

The second is another non-tropical low pressure system that is forecast to develop over the western North Atlantic between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of next week. This low is expected to move slowly northward to northeastward after it forms, and some subtropical or tropical development is possible thereafter. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, but that increases to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The sea breeze regime continues on Sunday, as easterly winds will push Gulf moisture onshore and west from the lakes. The large high pressure ridge that has been staying put over the southern states has finally flattened out. This has altered the weather pattern, changing from dry to a wetter pattern heading into the beginning part of the workweek. This is due to the ability of the sea breeze front to continue to push onshore through the weekend, and the first cold front of the season approaching Sunday and Monday. This front will push into the Gulf Monday and early Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and storms across our area Monday. By Tuesday, we will be behind the front and will enjoy a cool and sunny day. Dry conditions will continue on Wednesday, but the front will rebound and head back inland as a warm front on Thursday, bringing isolated afternoon showers back in the forecast. Models are suggesting another, stronger front will push west to east across the Gulf States on Friday. This front could be bringing a quick fall, as high temperatures on Saturday could stay in the low-to-mid 70s.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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