THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies for your Tuesday, with showers and storms developing through the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will develop around 1 PM. An impulse of showers and storms will be approaching from the north around 4 PM, which should increase rain and storm coverage to scattered until 8 PM. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms, so localized flooding is possible. Temperatures will warm to an afternoon high near 93° with light winds out of the southwest. Heat Index values will be approaching 103°, especially for areas that stay dry. Showers taper off by 10 PM, under partly cloudy skies and overnight lows near 75°.

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the majority of the workweek, before isolated afternoon showers occur beginning Friday.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

There continues to be little change in the forecast as we await an upper level high pressure center that should near the area over the weekend. Currently, the surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf keeps southerly winds along the Gulf Coast, and is rather efficient at pushing Gulf moisture onshore. Scattered storms will stay the course through Thursday, until the stacked high pressure that is currently over New Mexico breaks through Texas and into Louisiana. This high will keep showers and storms on the spotty to isolated range, but will also allow temperatures to soar into the mid-90s. The ridge associated with this high pressure looks as if it will bisect Louisiana from northwest to southeast, keeping our area a bit cooler and wetter than more west over the weekend. The GFS is hinting at bringing another cold front with some cooler air behind it by mid-to-late next week. This is rather rare, but we did experience one in July – which is also rare. Confidence is still low since it is so far out and was only picked up on the last model run, but one can hope!

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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