After beginning dry, the remainder of the week will bring times of heavy rain, with an increased chance for flooding.

Today and Tonight: Monday will feature more pleasant weather. Partial sunshine will help temperatures back into the upper 70s. Winds will remain southeasterly at 10-15 mph. We can expect clouds to increase overnight. Winds will stay up and lows won’t drop out of the low 60s.

Up Next: Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop as early as Tuesday Afternoon. There may even be a few strong thunderstorms—especially for areas west of a Wilkinson County – St. Mary Parish line. Highs will be held in the mid to upper 70s because of cloud cover. This forecast will unfortunately persist through the end of the week. Wednesday through Friday will bring highs in the mid 70s, lows in the mid 60s, clouds and periods of heavy rain. 6-10” of rain will be possible. Local river rises and flash flooding may be an issue. Be with us as the forecast evolves.  

Meteorologist Josh Eachus takes a detailed look at the heavy rain threat in today's video weather briefing:

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: High pressure will be positioned off of the Florida Coast through Tuesday continuing a southeast wind flow—building a moisture across the region. While the high has resulted in fair weather for several days, it is that moisture return that will come back to bite. An upper level low will close off over Mexico—an anomalously southern setup for such a feature this time of year. With the resulting deep southwesterly flow, all levels of the atmosphere will become saturated by Tuesday, activating convection. Some dynamics such as a modest jet stream may offer a brief window for strong thunderstorms Tuesday Night into Wednesday, but the bigger issue will be heavy rain. As impulses cruise around the upper low from Wednesday to Friday, periods of rain will ensue. Deep moisture and strong south to southwesterly flow at all levels will bring rounds of heavy rain and possibly training storm cells. 6-10” of rain will be possible and flash flooding will be a concern. Local rivers could bump up as well with runoff maximized. Expect a FLASH FLOOD WATCH to be issued by the National Weather Service. Confidence in heavy rain is high. There is some uncertainty as to when the precipitation will end. The GFS begins to quiet things down by Saturday and the ECMWF holds rain through the first half of the weekend. We will be watching closely as this will have implications on the Baton Rouge St. Patrick’s Day Parade.

--Josh 

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