A pattern switch is underway. The tropics are active, but not overly threatening to the United States.

The Next 24 Hours: Skies will clear out overnight. Humidity will remain rather high and low temperatures will barely escape the 80s. On Tuesday, less moisture in the atmosphere will yield only a stray shower and a mainly dry day around the region. On the other hand, abundant moisture at the surface will lead to an uncomfortable day around the region. Highs will get into the 90s by midday and stay there through the 5 o’clock hour. Due to high humidity, we will feel a heat index in the 100s for several hours.     

After That: Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly sunny, hot and humid. Highs will rise into the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. On Friday and Saturday, a weak cold front may help to trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms. However, coverage will be much less than what we experienced over the last week or so. That cold front is not expected to alter temperatures much, but could tweak the humidity down just a touch.

NEW: the first advisory on Tropical Depression Fifteen. Fortunately, this system will be drifting away from the United States--only kicking up swells on the Eastern Seaboard. pic.twitter.com/2Hd3FNBzo8

— WBRZ Weather (@WBRZweather) August 31, 2020

The Tropics: On Monday afternoon, Tropical Depression Fifteen formed near the North Carolina coast and could become Tropical Storm Nana. Either way, this system is expected to drift northeast and away from the country. The only issue will be higher seas for a few days. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has yet to become well organized or develop a closed central circulation. Environmental conditions provide an 80 percent chance that a tropical depression develops as the system jogs west toward the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest wave to move off the African Coast has a 30 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.     

The Explanation: The Bermuda ridge of high pressure will expand over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through Thursday. With much less moisture in the atmosphere and sinking motions induced by the ridge, rain coverage will be bleak. The opposite is true for heat. Feels-like temperatures will run well into the low 100s thanks to a longer duration of sunshine and warmth and no shortage of late summer humidity. On Friday, a weak cold front will drive into the region and possible activate a few showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, that front will dissipate and provide no significant relief to our area yet. Then over the weekend, a deep trough of low pressure will settle into the Eastern U.S. This may not penetrate all the way to the central Gulf Coast but will shove the Bermuda ridge back east and allow enough instability for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms to return.     

--Josh

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