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Hurricane Francine strengthens a little more, landfall likely on Wednesday

1 hour 23 minutes 56 seconds ago Tuesday, September 10 2024 Sep 10, 2024 September 10, 2024 10:50 PM September 10, 2024 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

Clouds and rain coverage increase through the night as tropical moisture overspreads the region. The weather will deteriorate after dawn on Wednesday as what is expected to be Hurricane Francine approaches the coast. Any last minute hurricane preparations need to be completed by the morning.

Scroll farther down the page to find the short-term forecast.


The Latest On Francine: Shortly after the 10 p.m. advisory, Air Force Hurricane Hunters found evidence that Francine had strengthens. The storm is now a stronger Category 1 hurricane with peak winds at 85 mph. Francine has a short window of intensification through early Wednesday before that trend levels off. Landfall is likely on Wednesday afternoon along southern Louisiana near or slightly below peak intensity. The latest forecast shows a landfall as a Category 1 storm with peak winds at 90 mph.

While impacts can and will be felt all around the center of the storm, the strongest winds and heaviest rain is typically found north and east of center. The latest round of computer model guidance continues to nudge the storm farther east. Should that trend hold and come to pass, this would lessen the severity of impacts along and west of Baton Rouge. Although western locations might benefit from this kind of shift, that would occur to the detriment of those to the east where impacts would increase.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast still lies west of said guidance, but the Storm Station would not be surprised to see the storm track closer to New Orleans. This is something to monitor.

Francine will quickly weaken upon landfall while jogging northeast across southeast Louisiana. Francine will pull away from the region on Thursday morning with rain ending and winds slowly easing.

Pay close attention to the forecast leading up to landfall and review your hurricane preparedness plan. Minor track and strength adjustments may still come up to landfall as new data arrives. Keep up to date with the latest forecast. The Storm Station has you covered on-air, online, and on social media. Download the free, WBRZ weather app HERE to find out first when new tropical updates become available.

A ***HURRICANE WARNING*** is in effect along the Louisiana coast including East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, St. James, Iberville, Assumption and St. Mary Parishes. Expect sustained winds in the ballpark of 30-40 mph with gusts over 75 mph for our covered parishes in this region. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.

A ***HURRICANE WATCH*** has been issued farther east for Livingston and southern Tangipahoa Parishes, along with the rest of the Northshore and New Orleans metro. While these areas are under a Tropical Storm Warning now, they may get upgraded to Hurricane Warnings depending on future track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

A ***TROPICAL STORM WARNING*** is in effect for Point Coupee, West and East Feliciana, Livingston, St. Helena, and Tangipahoa Parishes. Expect sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph for these areas. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives. 

Impacts will begin across southern Louisiana on Wednesday morning, lasting through Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Heavy Rain/Flooding: 3-6" of rain is possible in Metro Baton Rouge, with higher amounts perhaps in the ballpark of 8"+ closer to where the center of the system tracks. The steadiest and heaviest rain will occur Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Typical trouble spots may hold water, and southeast-facing shores will face minor to moderate coastal flooding. This forecast is closely tied to the track of Francine. A shift east would take the highest rain totals east with it.

A ***FLOOD WATCH*** has been issued for the entirety of south Louisiana. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. A Flood Watch means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.

Tornadoes: The latest trajectory places the much of southeast Louisiana on the right, forward side of the storm. It is this part where tornadoes are often found. Areas near and west of Baton Rouge will be closer to the center of circulation, or on the western side of it. There, the tornado threat would lessen. Tropical tornadoes tend to develop quickly and be short-lived. Have a way to receive alerts and be alert to Tornado Warnings beginning Wednesday. For more on tornado safety, CLICK HERE.

Wind: Areas near the center of circulation could experience hurricane-force winds, especially for those closer to the coast. Farther inland and away from the center, tropical storm-force (39mph+) winds are possible with higher hurricane-force (74mph+) at times. Winds will ramp up on Wednesday afternoon and peak Wednesday evening, before subsiding on Thursday.


Storm Surge: Winds associated with Francine will push water toward the immediate coastline. Anywhere from 5 to 10 feet of storm surge is possible from Vermillion Bay to Port Fourchon. 3 to 5 feet of surge are possible along Lake Pontchartrain and Maurepas. This is primarily an issue for non-levee protected areas.

A ***STORM SURGE WARNING*** is in effect along the immediate coastline and the Northshore.

This is a life-threatening situation for areas affected. Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. Be on the lookout for evacuation orders from officials and leave immediately if ordered.


The following is the short-term forecast prior to any potential tropical impacts by midweek.

Tuesday night: Rain coverage and breezes will increase overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday as Francine draws closer. Outer rain bands associated with the storm could produce brief downpours and isolated tornadoes. Be sure to have a way to receive warnings while asleep. 

After Francine: Conditions will dramatically improve on Thursday. There may be some lingering breezes and isolated showers in the wake of Francine, but the day will otherwise feature a mix of sun and clouds with humidity and highs in the mid 80s. Ample sunshine and dry conditions will stick around Friday through the weekend but it will feel much like late summer with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the low 70s and some mugginess. CLICK HERE for the full Storm Station 7-Day Forecast. 



Click the icons below for resources ahead of Francine: 

          

     

The Storm Station is here for you, tracking the tropics on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App on your Apple or Android device. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go. You can also find tropical updates on our Hurricane Center HERE.

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