A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning. On the other side, temperatures will plummet to their lowest readings so far this fall season.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday with an increase in coverage expected late. It will not be an all-day washout. Any thunderstorms will be capable of a quick downpour. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible, so be alert for a rogue warning, but the overall threat is low. Mild air ahead of an approaching cold front will allow high temperatures to top out near 80 degrees. As a cold front moves into the area overnight, expect a batch of rain and thunderstorms between midnight and dawn. Thursday’s high will be registered at midnight, around 70 degrees, with thermometers swiftly falling behind the front. Morning readings will be near 60 degrees.

Up Next: Precipitation will end for all by midday Thursday, if not sooner. Some sun could break out by afternoon. With northwesterly winds taking hold behind the front, expect steady or falling temperatures for most of the daylight hours. Morning temperatures near 60 degrees will be closer to 50 degrees by dusk. Trick-or-treaters will want to bundle up for the evening fun. Beneath clearing skies, continued northerly winds will usher in the coolest temperatures so far this fall season. Friday morning will begin in the low 40s with some isolated pockets in the upper 30s. Friday through Sunday will be mainly clear with highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.

The Tropics: A non-tropical low in the north Atlantic is given a 30 percent chance of becoming a subtropical storm Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions will gradually become more unfavorable by the end of the week.

THE EXPLANATION:

A warm front has lifted through the area allowing southerly winds to return dew point temperatures above 70 degrees. The result will be a very muggy feel and high temperatures will approach 80 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. The thick column of moisture is near a record high for the date, which means any thunderstorms will be capable of downpours. Fortunately, brisk steering winds will mean that the storms will be transient and therefore rain totals will remain modest. Overall, the activity will just be “scattered” and a daylong washout is not expected. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will race east through Thursday when its axis will cross the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This trough will drive a cold front across the area with a final push of showers and thunderstorms. High resolution forecast models bring the front into the area around midnight and push it east by noon Thursday. Wednesday to Thursday rain totals around an inch are expected. Showers will end from west to east as very chilly temperatures take hold of the area. The timing will mean that Thursday’s high temperatures occur around midnight and then fall most of Thursday all the way through to Friday morning. With northerly winds, trick-or-treaters can expect chilly conditions with readings in the low 50s and upper 40s. On Friday morning, lows will bottom out in the upper 30s for locations north of I-10. A reinforcing front will pass on Saturday maintaining quiet, cool weather through Monday with highs near 60 and lows near 40.  

--Josh

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