BATON ROUGE - The state needs more compliance from residents from across the state to flatten the curve, Gov. John Bel Edwards said Friday.

New data released Friday for the greater New Orleans area paints a troubling trajectory.

"Where we are right now is somewhere between the worst-case scenario and best-case scenario," Edwards said.

The new modeling from the Louisiana Department of Health and LSU Health Sciences Center project one COVID-19 positive patient is currently infecting 2 additional people.

At that rate, and with the current level of compliance from residents staying at home, or sheltering-in-place, and social distancing, New Orleans hospitalizations will peak in early May at more than 2,000 hospitalizations each day. 

The data shows more effective social distancing practices, the peak would come in mid-May with roughly 1500 hospitalizations daily. 

As more residents begin following the stay-at-home order strictly and avoid social contact, the peak not only reduces substantially but also spreads out over time, helping to conserve medical resources. 
An LSU doctor who helped with the modeling says there is plenty of room for improvement.

"It does not seem like we are really doing a great job with shelter-in-place," Dr. Susanne Straif-Bourgeois said. "However, keep in mind, it might take a couple of weeks [until] we really see a difference of a strict shelter-in-place."

Data aside, Edwards says residents need to do a better job.

"We can kind of lose ourselves in the numbers and the graphs and so forth," Edwards said. But to the degree that people comply with the orders, then less people are gonna die. It is literally that simple."

Spots like New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Shreveport are doing a good job following the mitigation measures, according to Edwards. But he adds it depends on the entire state to determine just how bad the COVID-19 outbreak becomes.

"Take the stay-at-home order seriously," Edwards said. "Your neighbors' life depends on it and quite frankly, so might your own."