Some showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day over Easter Weekend, but to be clear, a lot of dry time is expected. A cold front will bring an extended stretch of rain-free weather next week.

Next 24 Hours: Any rogue showers will diminish after sunset with mostly cloudy skies continuing overnight. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Southeast winds of 5-10mph will keep humidity in place. High temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s Saturday afternoon. Expect mostly cloudy skies with occasional breaks of sun. Some late day showers and thunderstorms look likely, especially north of I-10. Similar to Friday, activity will fizzle after dark.     

Up Next: Easter Sunday will bring essentially a repeat of the recent weather. Most of the daytime hours should stay dry. After a mix of clouds and sun with a high temperature in the mid 80s, a slightly better shot at showers and thunderstorms will come late afternoon and especially into the night. As a cold front moves through the area, several clusters or even a line of thunderstorms is expected. A few of the storms could produce gusty wind and hail. Once the front pushes into the Gulf of Mexico by late Monday morning, much drier conditions are anticipated for next week. The high and low temperatures will be near average Monday through Wednesday and a few degrees above average by the end of the week. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: Through the weekend, the local area will sit in a humid air mass with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s will promote instability. The question will be, what triggers can activate the warm, moist air to get showers and thunderstorms going? A fast moving upper level disturbance will move through the region on Saturday and should generate the lift necessary to pop scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be closer to the disturbance itself, along and north of I-12. The loss of daytime heating will cause any action that bubbles up to diminish shortly after dark. On Sunday, a weak disturbance and upper level trough of low pressure will pass generally north of the local area during the evening and overnight hours. These features will guide a weak cold front into the region on Sunday night and all will combine to kick out a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Since instability will remain available even after dark, showers and thunderstorms will not just continue at that time but are most likely between dusk Sunday and dawn Monday. Much of Easter Sunday will be dry as a result. The Storm Prediction Center outlines areas north of I-10 in a level 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather as some thunderstorms could produce gusty wind and hail. The front will pass through on Monday morning with drier air settling in for the majority of next week. Highs will be near average in the upper 70s and low 80s through Wednesday with lows perhaps even a few degrees below average in the mid 50s. As winds slowly shift around to the southeast, moisture will return by the end of next week with more humidity and some clouds. Right now, there are no significant rain chances foreseen for the bulk of the workweek.

--Josh

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