Francine slowly organizing, continued signs of eastward shift in track
Clouds and rain coverage increase through the night as tropical moisture overspreads the region. The weather will deteriorate after dawn on Wednesday as what is expected to be Hurricane Francine approaches the coast. Any last minute hurricane preparations need to be completed by the morning.
Scroll farther down the page to find the short-term forecast.
The Latest On Francine: As of 4pm Tuesday, Tropical Storm Francine maintains peak winds at 65 mph. Strengthening of the system is expected through Wednesday morning. Francine will likely become a hurricane by Tuesday evening. There is indication that over the warm Gulf waters, Francine will remain a category one storm with winds around 90mph before making landfall near St. Mary Parish on Wednesday afternoon.
Francine will quickly weaken upon landfall while jogging northeast across southeast Louisiana. While impacts can and will be felt all around the center of the storm, the strongest winds and heaviest rain is typically found north and east of center. As of now, that central track is likely to occur between Baton Rouge and Lake Pontchartrain. Francine will pull away from the region on Thursday morning with rain ending and winds slowly easing.
Pay close attention to the forecast leading up to landfall, review your hurricane preparedness plan, and refresh supplies if needed. Minor track and strength adjustments may still come over the next day as new data arrives. Keep up to date with the latest forecast. The Storm Station has you covered on-air, online, and on social media. Download the free, WBRZ weather app HERE to find out first when new tropical updates become available.
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A ***HURRICANE WARNING*** is in effect along the Louisiana coast including East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, St. James, Iberville, Assumption and St. Mary Parishes. Expect sustained winds in the ballpark of 30-40 mph with gusts over 75 mph for our covered parishes in this region. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.
A ***TROPICAL STORM WARNING*** is in effect for Point Coupee, West and East Feliciana, Livingston, St. Helena, and Tangipahoa Parishes. Expect sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph for these areas. Changes in strength are possible as new data arrives.
Impacts will begin across southern Louisiana as early as Wednesday, lasting through Wednesday night and into early Thursday.
Heavy Rain/Flooding: 3-6" of rain is possible in Metro Baton Rouge, with higher amounts perhaps in the ballpark of 8"+ closer to where the center of the system tracks. The steadiest and heaviest rain will occur Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Typical trouble spots may hold water, and southeast-facing shores will face minor to moderate coastal flooding.
A ***FLOOD WATCH*** has been issued for the entirety of south Louisiana. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. A Flood Watch means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.
Tornadoes: The latest trajectory places the much of the Capital Area on the right, forward side of the storm. It is this part where tornadoes are often found. Tropical tornadoes tend to develop quickly and be short-lived. Have a way to receive alerts and be alert to Tornado Warnings beginning Wednesday. For more on tornado safety, CLICK HERE.
Wind: Areas near the center of circulation could experience hurricane-force winds, especially for those closer to the coast. Farther inland and away from the center, tropical storm-force (39mph+) winds are probable with higher hurricane-force (74mph+) gusts. Winds will ramp up on Wednesday afternoon and peak Wednesday evening, before subsiding on Thursday.
Storm Surge: Winds associated with Francine will push water toward the immediate coastline. Anywhere from 5 to 10 feet of storm surge is possible along the coast and along the Northshore. This is primarily an issue for non-levee protected areas.
A ***STORM SURGE WARNING*** is in effect along the immediate coastline and the Northshore.
This is a life-threatening situation for areas affected. Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. Be on the lookout for evacuation orders from officials and leave immediately if ordered.
The following is the short-term forecast prior to any potential tropical impacts by midweek.
Tuesday night: Rain coverage and breezes will increase overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday as Francine draws closer. Outer rain bands associated with the storm could produce brief downpours and isolated tornadoes. Be sure to have a way to receive warnings while asleep.
After Francine: Conditions will dramatically improve on Thursday. There may be some lingering breezes and isolated showers in the wake of Francine, but the day will otherwise feature a mix of sun and clouds with humidity and highs in the mid 80s. Ample sunshine and dry conditions will stick around Friday through the weekend but it will feel much like late summer with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the low 70s and some mugginess. CLICK HERE for the full Storm Station 7-Day Forecast.
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