Experts say Louisiana's new congressional map might not alter current breakdown
BATON ROUGE - In the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision on the congressional maps, experts are saying the changes are likely to benefit a Black Democrat in the race in November, but this is not the end of the story for future elections.
"This is not over at least legally, but politically this will be the map we will have for this election," Dr. Albert Samuels, who heads the political science department at Southern University, said.
The new map creates a second majority-black district that stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Samuels says it now poses a threat to the Republican candidates.
"This district is majority-minority, but it's not overwhelmingly majority black, so it's still not out of range for a republican candidate to win this seat," he said.
Senator Cleo Fields has already announced his candidacy and his intent to run in the district. Dr. Samuels says he could be favored to win.
“This district was actually drawn in a way to harm Representative Garret Graves' prospects," Samuels said.
The most-recent map approved by legislators — the one with the Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport district — is similar to one struck down in 1993 on grounds that it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering. Samuels believes gerrymandering is still around, but at a new level of efficiency.
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"One of the concerns people have is that with the excessive gerrymandering that were creating so many districts that are uncompetitive, that it almost diminishes peoples right to vote," Samuels said.
But this approach does still allow either party to potentially win the seat.
"It gives minority candidates an opportunity to win two districts, but it doesn't guarantee that," Samuels said. "A minority candidate would be favored to win, but there's no guarantee based on this map."
Samuels said it's unfortunate that the country has not moved beyond skin color being a factor in who gets elected.
"The fact of the matter is that we still have racially polarized voting patterns, not just in Louisiana, but all over the country."