After a couple of chilly mornings Sunday and Monday, temperatures will rebound to average by mid-week. Meanwhile, a continued absence of rain extends the regional drought.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Temperatures will warm some 30° away from morning lows on Monday thanks to abundant sunshine. Highs will top out in the upper 70s late afternoon. Easterly winds will blow at 5-10mph creating a moderate chop on the lakes. Tonight, skies are expected to stay clear with a low in the mid 50s, so you won’t need as heavy of a jacket on Tuesday Morning.

Looking Ahead: Burning is still banned across the state as no rain relief is seen in the near term. Tuesday will offer more sunshine with highs closer to average—in the low 80s. By Wednesday, a little return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico, thanks to east-southeast winds, could provide the little moisture injection needed to eliminate the extremely dry air and add a cloud or two to skies. Highs will be in the mid 80s with lows in the low 60s. As the week comes to an end, moisture will continue to saturate the atmosphere—but likely not enough for any rain. Skies will be partly sunny with highs and lows just a touch above average in the mid 80s and mid 60s.

There is increased condfidence in a rain opportunity later this week. Get detailed timing and analysis from Meteorologist Josh Eachus in his daily forecast briefing, RIGHT HERE.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A weak upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and dry air in the basin of a trough over the Eastern United States will continue to bring sunny skies and dry conditions into mid-week. A strong surface high pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic region will reinforce an east-southeast surface wind flow and this will promote a gradual return of seasonable dew points and thus more normal humidity levels. Higher dew points, in the upper 50s and low 60s, will mean lower diurnal temperature ranges of about 20, rather than 30 degrees by mid-week. This translates to highs in the low 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s. Changes aloft will begin as early as Thursday. A deepening trough in the Desert Southwest will invoke southwesterly flow and thus some moistening of the middle and upper levels as well. This could create some clouds, but the saturation process has a long way to go and rain isn’t expected until the weekend as a result. To that note, forecast models continue to depict a cold front developing in the lee of the Rockies on Saturday. Meanwhile, the trough will stir up a surface low pressure area in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This is a favorable setup to draw plentiful moisture northward, producing a swath of rain over the Gulf Coast. At this time, confidence has increased in a large batch of rain, though location is still a little questionable. Texas and Western Louisiana certainly look wet. As far as the local area, it could well be that rain holds off until the cold front comes a bit closer on Sunday. We’ll hash the fine details out as the time nears, but the good news is, chances are looking better for a dent in the drought.

 --Josh

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